As more experts urge for approval this year, anticipation for a spot bitcoin ETF is increasing. The likelihood that applications for a spot bitcoin ETF would be approved by the SEC this year was increased by Bloomberg Intelligence on Wednesday to 65%. Previously, it gave the approval a 50% chance of happening. Many businesses, including …
As more experts urge for approval this year, anticipation for a spot bitcoin ETF is increasing. The likelihood that applications for a spot bitcoin ETF would be approved by the SEC this year was increased by Bloomberg Intelligence on Wednesday to 65%. Previously, it gave the approval a 50% chance of happening. Many businesses, including BlackRock Inc., VanEck Funds, 21Shares, and ARK Investment Management, have their sights set on launching a so-called spotcoin ETF—an exchange-traded fund that would track actual bitcoin. Due to their April filing, ARK and 21Shares are in front of other companies like BlackRock in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s timeline. These companies had to add more material to their June applications. The SEC has approved ETFs that give investors exposure to bitcoin future contracts, however a spotcoin ETF is still elusive.
In a research published on August 2, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas listed a few key elements that increased the likelihood that the regulator would approve the ETFs. For instance, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has downplayed his position as one of the five decision-makers at the regulatory body, arguing that investors shouldn’t draw conclusions about the approval of the ETFs based solely on his past rejection of cryptocurrencies. Grayscale’s continuing litigation against the SEC, which claims that the agency rejected the conversion of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to an ETF, may provide a route to approval. Based on the judges’ questions during the oral arguments, the analysts predict that Grayscale will win the case. The analysts also mention the SEC’s defeat by Cboe in the same court that is hearing the Grayscale complaint, the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C Circuit. According to the report, the SEC may lose because the court rejected the agency’s reasoning. In Grayscale’s case, two of the three judges who decided Cboe’s case also ruled on it.
On August 2, the GBTC discount, a metric that forecasts market sentiment on the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF, fell to just 28%. The discount reached a high of 43% in November. Investor confidence in the trust is increased as the GBTC discount narrows, indicating increased support for the trust’s conversion into an ETF.
Risk Disclaimer:
Please note that this article does not offer any instructions or suggestions regarding investment decisions. Therefore, it is essential that you carefully evaluate your financial situation and conduct thorough analysis, or seek advice from a qualified professional, before making any investment decisions.
